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AI Studio Answer Guide: Future Log Return

Status: Per-family deep reference (companion to the consolidated Fusion AI Studio & ONNX User Guide) Audience: first-time AI Studio user Answer family: Future Log Return Prediction style: Regression

1. The Plain-English Question

Future Log Return asks:

“What is the expected log-scaled move from the current close to the close N bars ahead?”

This family is very close in spirit to Future Return.

The difference is:

So the trader meaning is still directional, but the scale is slightly different.

2. What Fusion Is Actually Building

Example:

Meaning:

Target_LogReturn10[t] = log(Close[t+10] / Close[t])

Plain-English translation:

The result is still:

3. The One Important Mental Model

This family is still a signed directional return forecast.

That means the main idea is the same as Future Return:

positive = expected upside
negative = expected downside
near 0   = weak directional expectation

The difference is not the long/short meaning.

The difference is the scale.

So the right mental model is:

“This behaves like a return forecast, but on a log-return scale.”

4. Which Step 1 Settings Control This Family

This family uses the normal Step 1:

If Step 1 says:

5,10,20

Fusion can create:

Then Step 2 chooses one of those columns for one model.

Important

For Future Log Return:

5. What The Model Output Means

This is a regression family.

The correct interpretation is:

positive = expected upside
negative = expected downside
near 0   = weak directional expectation

Important

This output is:

So 0 is a real centerline here.

6. How This Differs From Future Return

This is the main question a user will ask.

Future Return

Future Log Return

So the practical difference is not:

The practical difference is:

If the user wants the simplest mental model, Future Return is usually easier.

If the user wants a return-style target with smoother scaling, Future Log Return is a good alternative.

7. What 0 Means Here

For Future Log Return, 0 means:

That is the same centerline idea as:

It is not like:

8. Why Traders May Like This Family

This family can be useful when the user wants:

This is a reasonable alternative when:

9. Step-By-Step Future Log Return Walkthrough

Step A: Prepare the raw dataset

Open Export and make sure:

Step B: Create the prepared dataset

In AI Studio Step 1:

Now Fusion creates answer columns such as:

Step C: Choose the actual training question

In Step 2:

Example:

Now the model is learning:

Step D: Choose the features

Pick the inputs that may help answer:

“Will the next N bars produce an upside or downside move?”

Good first feature types often include:

Good first rule:

Step E: Train

Choose:

Good first algorithms:

Step F: Read the result

Think of the output like this:

positive = expected upside
negative = expected downside
near 0   = weak directional expectation

The sign matters more than the exact plotted shape.

10. Good First Session

If you want a clean first experiment with this family:

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

This gives a clean return-style directional workflow with a log-return scale.

11. What Not To Do

Do not assume this is a different kind of directional question than Future Return

It is still directional. The main difference is scale, not the long/short meaning.

Do not assume the ATR section controls this family

It does not.

Do not assume 0 is anything other than the centerline

Here, 0 still means no expected move.

Do not over-read the raw magnitude without understanding the scale

The sign is usually easier to interpret than the exact raw number.

12. Current Product Notes From The Future Log Return Guide Pass

These are the product improvements this guide exposes.

A. The UI should say more directly how it differs from Future Return

Suggested note:

“Future Log Return is still a signed directional return forecast. The main difference from Future Return is the log-return scale, not the long/short meaning.”

B. The family picker should make the centerline obvious

Suggested compact display:

Future Log Return
signed | centered on 0 | regression

C. The family picker should steer general users toward Future Return or ATR-Normalized Return first

Suggested note:

“If you want the easiest first mental model, start with Future Return or ATR-Normalized Return. Choose Future Log Return when you specifically want a return-style target with smoother scaling.”

13. One-Sentence Rule To Remember

Future Log Return means:

“Predict the signed log return from the current close to the close N bars ahead, where positive means expected upside, negative means expected downside, and 0 is the centerline.”

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